AI Demand Forecasting
Forecast at the level decisions are made, not the level you report on.
Most forecasting improvement projects raise a headline accuracy number without changing a single decision, because the forecast is produced at the wrong granularity. A monthly national forecast can be highly accurate and completely useless to a planner replenishing weekly by location.
Book a free consultationWhy this is usually broken
- Forecasts produced at reporting granularity rather than decision granularity
- Static models that do not adapt when demand patterns shift
- External signals that clearly affect demand are excluded because the model cannot take them
- Accuracy measured in aggregate, hiding poor performance where it costs the most
How we build it
Granularity from the decision
We start from the decision the forecast feeds and build to that level, even when the headline accuracy number gets worse as a result.
External signal incorporation
Weather, promotions, competitor activity and seasonality as inputs rather than as after-the-fact explanations.
Error measured where it costs
Accuracy reported weighted by financial impact, not averaged across a catalogue where most items barely move.
Continuous retraining
Models retrained on a schedule with drift monitoring, since demand patterns shift and a frozen model decays.
What changes
Figures are drawn from Senteras engagements and are illustrative of typical results. Outcomes vary by data quality, infrastructure and scope.
Common questions
Will accuracy improve?
At the decision level, usually yes and substantially. The headline aggregate number sometimes looks worse, because forecasting at a finer granularity is genuinely harder. We would rather be measured on inventory and service level than on a MAPE figure.
Where we deploy this
Retail & Consumer Goods
Predict what customers want before they ask, and stock exactly what you need.
Manufacturing & Supply Chain
Reduce downtime, improve quality, and build a more resilient supply chain with AI.
Logistics & Supply Chain
Forecasting, exception handling and trade documents on your own data.
The services behind it
Model Fine-Tuning & Integration
Models that speak your industry's language, trained on your data.
AI Strategy & Roadmap
A clear path from where you are to where AI can take you.
Custom AI Agents & Automation
AI that doesn't just answer questions. It gets things done.
Find out what this looks like for your organisation
A 30-minute call. We will tell you plainly whether AI is the right tool for the problem you have, including when it is not.
Book a free consultation